Bet Size and Strategy Post Flop
No Limit Holdem with One Pair

Making the correct bet size is a catch 22. If it's too small, you could be outdrawn by a weaker hand. If it's too big you may only get called by a better hand. And could find yourself pot committed in a bad situation.

If you have AA-QQ and raised it enough preflop you should be able to push hard post flop without any problem. This page is strategy and betting guidelines for smaller pots. That were only slightly raised or not raised at all preflop. The following would also apply if you limped in with a big pair like AA from early position and the pot did not get raised behind you.


Important Factors for Bet Sizing

It depends on the opponent of course. With a calling station or bad player as much as possible is best. But when against a typical player, generally there needs to be a balance. And the best way to find it is to know the odds, and use them to make the appropriate bet size.

Try to make a bet on the flop just large enough so that someone on a draw will not have correct odds, but will be close enough for them to call. Without pot committing yourself if you run into a superior hand. Then do the same thing on the turn. Even if someone does hit their card, in the long run it will be a winning play. As long as you fold to a big reraise. Remember it's only one pair. Which is a hand that should be folded sometimes.

Another important factor is position. Having superior table position will allow for a bit more aggression. And being out of position should focus more on controlling the pot. You don't want to make a weak bet on the flop or turn that could jeopardize keeping control. But again not too big to become pot committed.


How Much is Enough?

If you have the best position, betting about half to two thirds of the pot on the flop is best. Followed by another strong bet on the turn. You may want to make a value bet on the river but risk being raised and paying a heavy price or being forced to fold. So checking should be considered especially if a third suited card hits, the board pairs, etc.

If out of position keep the bet on the flop just a bit smaller. The reason for this is because you will more than likely have to bet not only the turn, but the river too in order to keep control of the pot.

Here are some examples of both.

Let's say I have $200 and AK clubs on the button. I raised to $15 preflop get one caller. The flop is A89 with two spades (pot $30). I bet $20 and get called. The pot is now $70 I bet $35 and get called again. A third spade hits on the river and we both check. My opponent shows A10 and I take down a nice pot.

If I was out of position and the same scenario I would have bet about $15 on the flop, $20 on the turn and $30 on the river. The odds would still be poor for his hand and I have kept control of the pot without having to overdo it.

There are many different situations possible. Just try to balance what you know and make the best bet size possible for that moment. Keeping in mind how it will effect bet size on later betting rounds.


Betting the Pot

You can see many players who just automatically bet the pot on the flop. Then all in on the turn or river. Although this is great with a set or other monster. With one pair it is very dangerous in deep money situations.

The downfall of betting the pot on the flop especially out of position. Is that if it's not a pot size bet again on the turn it could signal weakness. And one pair is somewhat of a weak hand. And you don't want to advertise that.

Just because it is no limit does not mean someone has to go all in at some point in order to show strength. Sometimes a medium size bet will actually scare educated players since it could mean anything. This may deter them from trying to steal or put some kind of move on you. And put them in a cautionary just call mode with a hand.

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Quick Odds

Most draws are about 20% to hit on the turn, 20% on the river. And 30-35% for both cards combined. I know that does not add up, here is the formula.
The chance they wont hit 80% x 80% =64%
So 100% -64% =36% they will hit.

So a bet 25% or more (of the pot) on the flop and turn will be enough. As long as you don't pay them off for all your chips if they make their draw.

It is actually 19% for a straight and 21% for a flush with one card to come. 31% for a straight and 35% for a flush with two cards to come. 

I always use 20% (4 to 1) for one card. And 33% (2 to 1) for two cards. For both straight and flush draws since it is easier to calculate quickly and close enough for most decisions.

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